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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222018
1500 UTC SUN OCT 14 2018

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   6(13)

SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)

P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)

15N 105W       34  1   1( 2)   3( 5)   8(13)  26(39)  15(54)   5(59)
15N 105W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   8(16)   3(19)
15N 105W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)   3(13)

MANZANILLO     34  1   2( 3)   4( 7)   4(11)  11(22)   9(31)   4(35)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

L CARDENAS     34  2   3( 5)   5(10)   7(17)  10(27)   5(32)   2(34)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

ZIHUATANEJO    34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   6(10)  10(20)   4(24)   1(25)

15N 100W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)

15N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  11(17)
15N 110W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
15N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

20N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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