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Tropical Storm Tara Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018
100 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...TARA WEAKENS SOME MORE WHILE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 104.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tara was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 104.8 West.  Tara is
drifting toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h).  A very
slow northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so.  On
the forecast track, the center of Tara should pass very close to the
coast of southwestern Mexico, or possibly move inland, tonight or
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast as Tara's
circulation interacts with the mountains of southwestern Mexico, and
the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday
evening.

Tara remains a tiny tropical cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds
only extending outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Tara is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 10 inches over the Mexican states of Colima and western
Jalisco through tonight. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are
possible over Colima and western Jalisco.  These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in
mountainous terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area today through Wednesday morning.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area today and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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