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Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 52A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
600 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018

...SERGIO CROSSING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND WEAKENING FAST...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 112.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to
Bahia San Juan Bautista

A Tropical Storm Warning means in this case that tropical storm
conditions are occurring somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 112.8 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next day or so.  On the
forecast track, the center of Sergio will continue to cross the
central portion of the Baja California peninsula this morning, and
then move over mainland northwestern Mexico later tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (70 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Sergio should weaken to a tropical depression
later today, and degenerate into a remnant low while moving over
northwestern Mexico. Dissipation should occur Saturday night or
Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Sergio is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over
Sonora and the central peninsula of Baja California through
today. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides in mountainous terrain.

Moisture from Sergio will affect the United States, with total
rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from southeast Arizona and
southern New Mexico toward the southern Plains through Saturday.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occuring in the warning area of
the Baja California peninsula, and these conditions will spread
northeastward this morning.  Gusty winds could reach the coast
of mainland Mexico tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja
California peninsula today, likely causing life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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