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Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to
Bahia San Juan Bautista.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the
next 12 to 18 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 116.7 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this track
is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the
center of Sergio will be near the Pacific coast of Baja California
Sur tonight or early Friday and then move over mainland Mexico by
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant change in strength is forecast this afternoon, but
Sergio is over cooler waters and gradual weakening is anticipated.
Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja California
peninsula as a tropical storm.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts
of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California
and Sonora through Friday. This could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain.
By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into
portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches and possible isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding,
particularly in the Southern Plains.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula by tonight
and these conditions will spread to the east coast of the peninsula
tonight or early Friday. These conditions could reach the coast of
mainland Mexico late Friday.
SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.