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Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number  47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
800 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SERGIO ACCELERATING TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...HEAVY RAINS
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE
UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 121.5W
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch
along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta
Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan
Bautista to San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 121.5 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A northeastward
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next
few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach
the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then reach
mainland Mexico late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through today, but
gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several days.
Sergio is forecast to reach the Baja California peninsula as a
tropical storm.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches
across the central peninsula of Baja California and Sonora through
Friday.  This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides within mountainous terrain.

By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into
portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
6 inches possible

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions could begin within the watch areas
Thursday night.

SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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