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Hurricane SERGIO


Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
200 PM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Sergio has maintained its annular-like structure over the past
several hours. The eye has expanded to nearly 90 n mi across, and
there is little evidence of convective banding in multiple microwave
overpasses since 1200 UTC this morning. Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB have decreased since the last advisory, however the
UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON are a little higher, so the initial
intensity has been lowered only slightly to 85 kt.

Very little change has been made to the official track or intensity
forecasts. Sergio is still forecast to slow down and turn northward
over the next day or so. In fact, the 12 h forecast point is
practically already inside the eye of the hurricane.  By Tuesday,
one or more shortwave troughs working southward along the western
side of a deep-layer trough centered over the southwestern U.S.
should cause Sergio to accelerate northeastward. Interestingly,
although the various global models solutions have changed with this
forecast cycle, the consensus has been fairly consistent, so only
minor adjustments were required to the official track forecast.

Slow weakening is still anticipated over the next few days as Sergio
possibly maintains its annular structure. By mid-week, Sergio will
be moving over progressively cooler waters, and a faster rate of
weakening is likely. The NHC forecast is very similar to the
previous advisory, and is near the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus


INIT  07/2100Z 14.7N 127.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 15.0N 128.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 15.6N 128.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 16.4N 127.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 17.3N 126.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 19.6N 122.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 23.5N 118.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  12/1800Z 28.0N 112.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

Forecaster Zelinsky