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Hurricane SERGIO


Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
200 AM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018

Sergio's eye has cooled somewhat during the past few hours, but
there have been no significant changes to the surrounding deep
convection.  Despite that observation, all available intensity
estimates have fallen to between 100-105 kt, and the advisory
intensity is therefore set at 105 kt.  The gradual weakening trend
Sergio has been on is expected to continue for the duration of the
forecast period as the hurricane moves toward slightly cooler
waters and into a drier, more stable environment.  An increase in
shear by days 4 and 5 should also help the weakening process along.
The updated NHC intensity forecast is not too different from the
previous one and is close to the intensity consensus, HCCA, and
Florida State Superensemble.

Sergio has continued to turn to the left and is now moving
west-northwestward, or 290/7 kt.  Northerly flow behind a mid-level
trough that will swing across the Baja California peninsula will
likely push Sergio west-southwestward by 24 hours, and the NHC
forecast continues to reflect that scenario.  After 48 hours, a
break in the ridge left behind by the trough should allow Sergio
to turn toward the north by days 3-4.  Another shortwave trough is
then expected to cause a northeastward acceleration by the end of
the forecast period.  The GFS and ECMWF, along with the other
major track models, have come into better agreement on this
acceleration by day 5, and the new official forecast is therefore a
little faster than the previous one at that time.


INIT  05/0900Z 16.0N 121.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 16.0N 122.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 15.7N 123.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 15.5N 124.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 15.4N 125.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 16.3N 126.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z 18.0N 126.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  10/0600Z 20.5N 122.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

Forecaster Berg