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Tropical Depression Paul Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
800 PM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018

Paul remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the associated deep
convection limited to the western portion of the circulation.  The
center of the system is completely exposed and the Dvorak
classifications have decreased from all agencies.  Based on that
data, Paul is now downgraded to a tropical depression with an
initial intensity of 30 kt.  Although the wind shear is expected to
lessen during the next couple of days, Paul will soon cross the 26
deg C isotherm and it will be headed for even cooler waters and a
drier airmass during the next few days. These conditions support
continued weakening, and Paul will likely become a remnant low in a
couple of days or less.

The depression has turned toward the west-northwest, with the
initial motion estimated to be 300/8 kt.  A gradual turn toward the
west is expected during the next few days as the cyclone becomes
increasingly shallow and is steered by the low-level flow.  The new
NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the south of the previous
one to come into better agreement with the latest consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 21.6N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 21.9N 123.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 22.3N 125.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 22.6N 127.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 22.9N 128.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/0000Z 23.2N 130.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/0000Z 23.2N 131.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/0000Z 23.0N 133.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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