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Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018
800 AM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018
Paul continues to have its low-level center displaced on the
northeast side of the main area of deep convection. This
convection is not well organized and there is little or no evidence
of banding features. The current intensity estimate remains 35 kt,
which is a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB
along with an ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS. Over the next few
days, Paul will be moving into a drier air mass and over a cooler
ocean. This should cause weakening, and the system if forecast to
degenerate into a remnant low in 72 hours, if not sooner
There is significant spread in the center fixes, so the initial
motion is a rather uncertain 320/9 kt. A gradual turn to the
west-northwest is forecast due to a mid-level ridge the north of
Paul. Later in the period, the increasingly shallow cyclonic
circulation should turn more to the west, following the low-level
flow. The official forecast is similar to the previous NHC track
an close to the correct model consensus, HCCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 20.8N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 21.4N 121.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 21.9N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 22.3N 125.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 22.7N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 23.5N 129.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1200Z 23.8N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1200Z 24.0N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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