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Tropical Storm OLIVIA
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 03 2018 There has been a pretty significant change with Olivia overnight, with the center either moving into or reforming southward under the central dense overcast. Microwave data indicate that a developing inner core is present as well, along with a notable increase in curved banding. Subjective Dvorak estimates have risen to 55 kt, which agrees well with the latest CIMSS-SATCON estimates, so the initial wind speed is raised to that value. While the cyclone remains over warm water for the next couple of days, northeasterly shear is forecast to persist, which should keep the intensification rates of the cyclone in check, along with some mid-level dry air. Slow strengthening seems most likely, and the official forecast is raised from the previous one, mostly due to the higher initial intensity. It should be noted that the corrected- consensus guidance is even higher, so the intensity forecast could be conservative. Olivia should move over more marginal waters in a few days, and a gradual weakening is indicated at long range. Olivia appears to be moving westward at about 6 kt, but this is pretty uncertain due to the recent center jump. The storm should move faster toward the west and eventually toward the west- northwest during the next several days as it encounters a strong ridge over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Almost all of the guidance is south of the previous model cycle, which is consistent with a stronger cyclone feeling the effects of a deep-layer ridge, so the latest NHC forecast is shifted in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 16.5N 114.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 16.5N 115.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 16.6N 117.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 16.9N 119.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 17.3N 121.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 18.6N 126.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 20.3N 132.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 22.0N 138.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN