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Hurricane Norman Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 02 2018

Norman has maintained a very distinct eye with a ring of deep
convection all day. T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB have not
changed and still are T6.0 on the Dvorak scale.  On this basis, the
initial intensity is being kept at 115 kt in this advisory. The
hurricane, however, will begin to approach lower SSTs, and intensity
guidance is responding to the cooler water by gradually weakening
the hurricane. The NHC forecast continues to follow the intensity
consensus IVCN, and forecasts a gradual weakening beyond 12 hours.

Norman is moving toward the west-northwest at 16 kt. There is a
strong subtropical ridge anchored to the north of the hurricane, and
this flow pattern will continue to steer the cyclone between the
west and west-northwest at the same speed for the next 2 days or so.
After that time, Norman will be near the southwestern edge of the
ridge, and a turn toward the northwest should then begin. Most of
the guidance shifted northward at very long ranges, so the NHC
forecast was slightly adjusted in that direction accordingly.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 18.1N 130.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 18.7N 133.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 19.5N 136.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 20.0N 140.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 20.5N 142.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 21.0N 147.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 23.0N 150.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 26.0N 152.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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