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Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
800 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018

Lane has continued to rapidly intensify during the past several
hours, with the eye gradually becoming better defined and the
central dense overcast surrounding the eye becoming larger.
Satellite intensity estimates have increased to a range of 100-115
kt, and based on this the initial intensity is increased to 105 kt
in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus technique.
The hurricane currently has good outflow in all directions and
there is a large area of outer banding, primarily in the
southeastern semicircle.

The first portion of the intensity forecast is a bit problematic.
With the exception of the HMON model, none of the intensity
guidance shows much additional strengthening.  However, except for
the possibility of some dry air wrapping around the west side of
the central convection, there is no apparent reason why the current
rapid intensification should stop that quickly.  The intensity
forecast will show 12 h more of rapid intensification, followed by
a period of little change from 12-48 h.  This portion of the
intensity forecast lies above all of the guidance.  After 48 h,
Lane should start to encounter westerly shear, which should
increase by the end of the forecast period and cause the cyclone to
steadily weaken.  This portion of the intensity forecast lies near
or a little above the intensity consensus.

The initial motion is 280/14.  Lane is forecast to move south of a
subtropical ridge in either a westward or west-northwestward
direction over the next 5 days, with some decrease in forward speed
by 72-120 h as the ridge weakens slightly.  There is some spread in
the guidance by 120 h, with the GFS and the NAVGEM models on the
north side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF model and UKMET
Ensemble mean on the south side.  As in the previous advisory,
little change was made to the forecast track which lies close to
the center of the guidance envelope and the consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 11.8N 135.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 12.2N 137.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 12.7N 140.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 13.4N 142.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 13.9N 145.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 14.5N 149.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  22/0000Z 15.0N 152.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  23/0000Z 15.5N 156.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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