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Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
200 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018

A series of microwave overpasses and conventional visible/infrared
imagery show that Lane's inner core continues to develop rapidly.
The eye in the visible presentation has begun to clear out, and the
lower frequency microwave images show a completely enclosed, solid
inner convective ring. The subjective and objective T-numbers from
TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS, respectively, support increasing the
initial intensity to 95 kt.

The intensity forecast philosophy has not changed from 6 hours ago,
and Lane is still predicted to quickly strengthen to major hurricane
intensity later tonight, and has the potential to become a category
4 hurricane in 24 hours. The environment certainly appears favorable
enough for this 24-hour trend to occur and the hurricane regional
and statistical intensity guidance reflect strengthening, but the
NHC forecast is much higher than the NOAA HCCA and the IVCN
consensus models during the first 24 hours. Beyond 36 hours, Lane
should begin to gradually weaken in response to increasing westerly
shear. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is a
blend of HCCA and IVCN at these times.

The initial motion continues to be westward or 275/14 kt. Lane is
forecast to move south of a subtropical ridge in either a westward
or west-northwestward direction over the next 5 days. Little change
was made to the official track forecast, with only minor along-track
adjustments after 72 hours, and the NHC forecast is basically a
compromise of the various consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 11.5N 134.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 11.7N 136.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 12.2N 139.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 12.9N 141.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 13.5N 144.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 14.4N 148.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  21/1800Z 14.9N 152.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 15.3N 156.2W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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