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Hurricane LANE


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Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
200 AM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018

Lane continues to gradually strengthen.  Recent microwave images
show a well-defined low-level eye, but this feature is not yet
apparent in geostationary satellite images.  The latest
satellite images show an organized central dense overcast, but
convection has decreased in the outer bands.  An average of the
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB yields an initial intensity of 70
kt.

The environmental factors suggest that continued steady or rapid
strengthening is likely during the next couple of days.  However,
there could be some intrusions of dry air that might interrupt the
rate of strengthening.  Nonetheless, it seems likely that Lane will
become a major hurricane within the next couple of days.  By the end
of the forecast period, the environment looks a little less ideal
with drier air and an increase in shear likely causing slow
weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the
previous one, and it remains at the high end of the model guidance.

After wobbling to the north late yesterday, Lane has resumed a more
westward motion at 14 kt.  The hurricane is expected to move
westward to west-northwestward during the next several days as it
continues to be steered by a subtropical ridge to its north.  There
is some north-south spread amongst the models with the UKMET on the
southern side of the guidance and the GFS and HWRF on the northern
side.  This spread appears to be associated with how much influence
a mid- to upper-level low off the Baja California coast has on
Lane's steering flow.  The NHC track forecast lies near the middle
of the guidance envelope, favoring the various consensus models, and
is slightly to the left of the previous forecast track.  Lane is
expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin in 36 to 48 hours.

The initial 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted outward
based on a 0544 UTC ASCAT-B pass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 11.4N 131.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 11.8N 133.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 12.2N 136.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  18/1800Z 12.7N 139.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  19/0600Z 13.4N 141.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  20/0600Z 14.5N 146.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  21/0600Z 15.0N 150.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  22/0600Z 15.5N 155.3W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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