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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Satellite images indicate that the depression is gradually getting
better organized with deep convection increasing near the center and
in curved bands over the western semicircle.  The initial intensity
remains 30 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB, but it would not be surprising if the system was a
little stronger.

The depression continues to move just south of due west at about 12
kt.  A deep-layer ridge situated to the north of the cyclone should
keep the system moving on a general westward path at about the same
forward speed during the next couple of days.  After that time, the
models suggest that a mid- to upper-level low will cut off and cause
a break in the ridge.  This change in the flow pattern should cause
the tropical cyclone to move toward the west-northwest in the 3- to
5-day time frame.  The models have generally shifted slightly to the
left this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that
direction.

The environmental conditions appear conducive for the cyclone to
strengthen during the next several days with the wind shear
expected to remain low, less than 10 kt, mid-level humidities fairly
high, and SSTs marginally warm.  The intensity models respond to
these favorable conditions, and all of them now show the system
becoming a hurricane within the next few days.  The NHC intensity
forecast follows that theme, and shows a faster rate of
strengthening than the previous forecast.  This prediction lies
closest to the HCCA and ICON models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 10.8N 122.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 10.6N 124.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 10.6N 126.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 10.8N 128.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 11.1N 130.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 12.3N 135.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 13.8N 140.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  20/0600Z 15.2N 144.1W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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