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Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  44
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP102018
1100 PM HST Fri Aug 10 2018
 
Hector's satellite appearance has degraded over the past six hours, 
with the eye now cloud-filled as debilitating southwesterly shear
is limiting outflow in the southwest quadrant. On the other hand, 
impressive outflow continues to the north and northeast of the 
center, and a 0528Z SSMI pass detected a well-developed eye. 
Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from HFO/SAB/PGTW 
remain 6.0/115 kt, while Data-T numbers are down to 5.0/90 kt.
Based on a blend of these values, the initial intensity for this
advisory is estimated to be 105 kt. 

Hector's forward motion has slowed since the previous advisory, and 
the initial motion for this advisory is estimated to be 290/10 kt. 
Hector lies between a mid-level ridge to the northeast and an upper-
level low to the northwest. These two features should put Hector 
on a trajectory toward the northwest through the weekend. Early next
week, the low aloft is forecast to weaken while the mid-level ridge
builds to the north of Hector, and a trajectory toward the
west-northwest is expected to resume. The updated forecast track
follows recent trends, shifting the forecast to the left of the
previous, and close to the multi-model consensus TVCN. 

Steady weakening is expected during the next couple of days as
south to southwesterly shear increases, with a slower rate of
weakening expected thereafter as shear relaxes. SSTs along the
forecast track will steadily decrease, but are still expected to be
near 26C on day 3, and near 25C on day 5. The updated intensity
forecast anticipates a faster rate of weakening in the short-term
than previously indicated, closely following the trend indicated by
the IVCN consensus. As shear relaxes in the later forecast periods,
SSTs are expected to be sufficiently warm to support a tropical
storm, although guidance spread is quite large at that time, with
SHIPS maintaining a hurricane, while HWRF/HMON indicate that Hector
will be a minimal tropical storm. 
 
Given the close approach to the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands on
Sunday and Monday, a Tropical Storm Watch remains posted for the
area from Lisianski Island to Pearl and Hermes Atoll. Interests 
on Midway and Kure Atolls should monitor continue to monitor the
progress of Hector.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0900Z 18.7N 169.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 19.7N 170.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 21.5N 172.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 23.2N 175.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  13/0600Z 24.9N 177.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  14/0600Z 27.4N 176.4E   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  15/0600Z 29.0N 171.0E   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  16/0600Z 32.0N 166.0E   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard
 
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