ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
 
Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  41
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP102018
500 AM HST Fri Aug 10 2018
 
Hector has been showing some signs of fluctuations of intensity
early this morning. The eye was less distinct earlier this morning,
but it is showing signs of becoming somewhat better defined during
the past couple of hours. All of the satellite fix agencies (PHFO,
SAB and JTWC) continued to indicate the subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates are T6.0/115 kt. The latest UW/CIMSS ADT is T5.8/110 kt.
Based on a blend of this guidance, the initial intensity will be
kept at 115 kt.
 
Hector's latest movement appears to toward the west-northwest, or
285 degrees, at 14 kt. This motion is expected to continue today
as Hector continues to be steered by a mid-level ridge located to
the north-northeast. The western end of this ridge is forecast to
weaken as a mid-level low pressure system develops near the
International Dateline from tonight through this weekend. This
is expected to result in a turn toward the northwest starting
tonight, and continuing into early next week. The current forecast
mostly follows the previous advisory package though 72 hours. After
that, the latest forecast track is shifted slightly to the left on
days 4 and 5. These subtle changes in the track were due to nudging
toward the HWRF, as well as the consensus models, such as TVCN and
GFEX.
 
The latest intensity forecast is indicating nearly steady state
conditions today and tonight. Note that there may be slight
fluctuations in intensity during the next 12 to 24 hours, but
Hector will likely remain a powerful hurricane through tonight.
After that, we are expecting gradual weakening from 36 through 48
hours. The weakening trend is more significant beyond 48 hours as
Hector moves into an area of increasing vertical wind shear, as well
as cooler water temperatures. The current intensity forecast is also
in line with HWRF, HMON, and CTC2, which have verified the best so
far. These models also show a faster weakening after 48 hours, but
this forecast again shows a more conservative weakening trend for
now.
 
As a result of Hector's west-northwest motion, the outer winds from
the hurricane will be far removed from Johnston Island. Therefore,
the Tropical Storm Watch is being discontinued. However, the latest
wind speed probabilities continue to show portions of the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, including Midway and Kure Atolls and
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument west of French
Frigate Shoals may require a Tropical Storm Watch later today or
tonight. It is also possible that if Hector does not weaken this
weekend as forecast, a Hurricane Watch may be required for some
areas. Note that there is no threat to any of the main Hawaiian
Islands from Kauai to the Big Island.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/1500Z 17.7N 165.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 18.5N 167.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 19.8N 169.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 21.3N 171.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 23.3N 173.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  13/1200Z 27.0N 178.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  14/1200Z 30.5N 176.5E   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  15/1200Z 33.5N 173.0E   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Houston
 
NNNN