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Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  34
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP102018
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 08 2018
 
Hector's satellite presentation has fluctuated since the previous 
advisory, with the eye briefly becoming indiscernible in
traditional infrared imagery before appearing again. The U.S. Air
Force Reserve 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron has been
penetrating Hector's core this morning, and found some decrease in
observed winds (with maximum flight level winds of 106 kt), while
the surface pressure changed little since last night. Based on a
combination of the aircraft data and subjective and objective
satellite-based intensity estimates, the initial intensity for this
advisory is set at 100 kt, with Hector maintaining major hurricane
status. 

The initial motion for this advisory is 270/14 kt, with Hector 
tracking due west to the south of a mid-level ridge centered to the 
distant north. The ridge will move little through Thursday, and the 
high-confidence short-term track forecast keeps Hector moving 
steadily west well to the south of the main Hawaiian islands.
Given the reduced wind threat to the Big Island, the Tropical Storm
Warning has been discontinued for Hawaii County. Hector is expected
to gradually gain latitude after 48 hours as it reaches the 
southwestern periphery of the ridge, with a more decided turn
toward the northwest expected after 72 hours. The official track
forecast lies close to the previous forecast and a tightly-packed
guidance envelope through day 3. On days 4 and 5, the official
forecast has been shifted to the right of the previous, close to
FSSE and TVCN, which are indicating a sharper poleward turn as a
low aloft develops to the northwest of Hector. 

Radar and microwave data indicate that an eyewall replacement cycle 
may be underway, with a secondary eyewall noted in a 1707 UTC SSMI 
image. If this occurs, some weakening and changes to the wind
field may occur in the short-term as the inner eye wall collapses. 
However, the overall environment in which Hector is embedded will 
remain conducive for the maintenance of a strong hurricane as
shear will be light and SSTs sufficiently warm through Friday.
Therefore, the intensity forecast indicates little change through
36 hours, with some weakening in the longer range as southwesterly
shear potentially increases. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 16.5N 155.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 16.6N 157.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 16.7N 160.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 17.0N 163.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 17.5N 165.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 19.5N 171.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 22.6N 176.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  13/1800Z 25.0N 180.0E   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard
 
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