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Hurricane HECTOR


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Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018
800 PM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018

Hector's rapid intensification has ended for the moment, with
satellite imagery showing that the eye has become cloud filled
since the last advisory.  In addition, recent satellite microwave
data indicate some erosion of the central convection on the north
side of the center, possibly due to shear or a tongue of dry air
working into the cyclone.  The initial intensity is held at 95 kt
in best agreement with the most recent CIMSS satellite consensus
intensity estimate, but it is possible that this is a little
generous.

The initial motion is 270/11.  A large subtropical ridge to the
north of Hector should steer the cyclone westward for the next
three days or so, and this part of the forecast track is an update
of the previous track.  Beyond that time, the large-scale models
forecast a large deep-layer trough to develop over the northeastern
Pacific, causing a weakness in the ridge to the north of Hector, and
leading to the cyclone turning west-northwestward.  There is some
spread in the guidance during this time, with the GFS forecasting a
weaker ridge and a more northward track than the ECMWF.  Overall,
the guidance envelope has again shifted northward from 72-120 h,
and the new forecast track does likewise in best agreement with the
HCCA corrected consensus and Florida State Superensemble models.

The intensity forecast remains low confidence.  While the shear
near Hector should subside during the next 12-24 h, the forecast
track takes the cyclone over slightly cooler sea surface
temperatures during this time.  This part of the new intensity
forecast thus calls for little change in strength.  From 24-72 h,
the cyclone should move over warmer water in a light shear
environment, which looks favorable for strengthening.  However,
there is sharp divergence in the guidance for this part of the
forecast, with the SHIPS and LGEM models forecasting weakening while
the dynamical HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC models forecast
intensification to a major hurricane.  The NHC forecast sides with
the dynamical models for this period, and it lies near the upper
edge of the intensity guidance.  After 72 h, Hector is expected to
gradually weaken as it moves into a drier air mass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 14.1N 126.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 14.1N 128.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 14.1N 130.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 14.0N 132.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 13.9N 135.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 14.0N 139.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 15.0N 144.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 16.5N 149.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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