Parts of the U.S. Government are closed. However, because the information this site provides is necessary to protect life and property, it will be updated and maintained during the Federal Government shutdown. For critical weather information, please visit www.weather.gov. To learn more, see www.commerce.gov.
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 03 2018 The intensification trend of Fabio appears to have ended. Several hours ago, satellite images showed a ring of cold cloud tops surrounding a distinct eye. However, more recent data indicate that the structure of Fabio has deteriorated with a pronounced dry slot evident on the east side of the circulation. Blending the latest intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support holding the initial wind speed at 95 kt, but this could be a little generous. Fabio is currently over marginally warm 27 degree C waters, but it is headed for much cooler waters during the next several days. These unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a more stable airmass and an increase in southwesterly shear should cause steady weakening through the forecast period. Fabio is forecast to weaken below hurricane strength in 36 to 48 hours, and it is predicted to become a remnant low by 96 hours. The intensity models are in fair agreement, and the NHC forecast lies between the HCCA and ICON consensus aids. The hurricane continues to move west-northwestward at 13 kt. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning. Fabio is expected to continue west-northwestward to northwestward at about the same forward speed during the next few days while it moves on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. By the end of the forecast period, when Fabio is a weak and shallow system, the cyclone is predicted to slow down as it becomes more influenced by the low-level flow. The track models remain in good agreement, and the NHC forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 16.5N 117.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 17.4N 119.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 18.9N 122.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 20.4N 124.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 22.0N 127.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 24.8N 131.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 26.7N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0000Z 28.1N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN