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Hurricane FABIO


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
900 AM MDT Mon Jul 02 2018

Fabio's cloud pattern has improved somewhat since the previous
advisory and early light visible satellite images show a
well-defined curved band that wraps around the center.  Recent
microwave images have shown some mixed signals regarding the
structure of the inner core.  A 1028 UTC SSMI microwave overpass
showed a well-defined low-level structure but the system was tilted
with most of the deep convective banding located to the southeast of
the center.  A subsequent 1147 UTC SSMIS pass showed similar
structure, but a more recent 1321 UTC SSMIS overpass shows the
formation of mid-level eye with a tighter inner-core. Subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates were 55 to 65 kt from SAB and TAFB, and
objective estimates from UW/CIMSS are 65 kt.  Based on the recent
improvement in structure, the initial intensity has been raised to
65 kt, making Fabio the third hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin
during the 2018 hurricane season.

Although Fabio has strengthened and become a hurricane, it has not
strengthened as rapidly as expected.  This was likely due to the
lack of inner core organization and the entrainment of some
mid-level dry air as noted in previous discussions.  Now that the
inner core structure has improved and the hurricane is forecast to
remain over warm waters and in a low shear environment, a faster
rate of intensification is anticipated during the next 24 to 36 h,
and Fabio is still forecast to become a major hurricane on Tuesday.
By early Wednesday, the hurricane is forecast to reach cooler waters
and less favorable thermodynamic conditions which should result in
rapid weakening.  Fabio is forecast to become a post-tropical
remnant low by day 5.

The cyclone has moved a little slower than expected over the past 24
hours and the initial motion estimate is 285/8 kt.  Fabio is
forecast to move west-northwestward at a faster forward speed
to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends westward from
northern Mexico.  The track guidance is in very good agreement and
the NHC forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 12.8N 110.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 13.7N 112.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 14.7N 114.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 15.8N 117.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 17.0N 120.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 19.5N 125.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 22.6N 130.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 25.0N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

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