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ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018 900 AM MDT Mon Jul 02 2018 Fabio's cloud pattern has improved somewhat since the previous advisory and early light visible satellite images show a well-defined curved band that wraps around the center. Recent microwave images have shown some mixed signals regarding the structure of the inner core. A 1028 UTC SSMI microwave overpass showed a well-defined low-level structure but the system was tilted with most of the deep convective banding located to the southeast of the center. A subsequent 1147 UTC SSMIS pass showed similar structure, but a more recent 1321 UTC SSMIS overpass shows the formation of mid-level eye with a tighter inner-core. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were 55 to 65 kt from SAB and TAFB, and objective estimates from UW/CIMSS are 65 kt. Based on the recent improvement in structure, the initial intensity has been raised to 65 kt, making Fabio the third hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin during the 2018 hurricane season. Although Fabio has strengthened and become a hurricane, it has not strengthened as rapidly as expected. This was likely due to the lack of inner core organization and the entrainment of some mid-level dry air as noted in previous discussions. Now that the inner core structure has improved and the hurricane is forecast to remain over warm waters and in a low shear environment, a faster rate of intensification is anticipated during the next 24 to 36 h, and Fabio is still forecast to become a major hurricane on Tuesday. By early Wednesday, the hurricane is forecast to reach cooler waters and less favorable thermodynamic conditions which should result in rapid weakening. Fabio is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by day 5. The cyclone has moved a little slower than expected over the past 24 hours and the initial motion estimate is 285/8 kt. Fabio is forecast to move west-northwestward at a faster forward speed to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico. The track guidance is in very good agreement and the NHC forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 12.8N 110.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 13.7N 112.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 14.7N 114.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 15.8N 117.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 17.0N 120.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 19.5N 125.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 22.6N 130.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 25.0N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN