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Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
300 AM MDT Mon Jul 02 2018

Fabio appears to have taken a brief pause in its intensification.
A well-defined convective band wraps from the southeast around to
the west of the low-level center, but 89-GHz microwave imagery and
scatterometer data indicate that the cyclone has not yet developed
a tight inner core.  In fact, the 05Z ASCAT data still showed a
radius of maximum winds around 40 n mi, and the wind field is
quite asymmetric with not many tropical-storm-force wind vectors in
the southwestern quadrant.  With Dvorak intensity estimates of
T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB, as well as SATCON
estimates of 55-60 kt, Fabio's initial intensity remains 60 kt for
this advisory.

Despite the broad wind field noted in scatterometer data, the last
few infrared satellite images suggest that some tightening of the
circulation may be starting.  Once a tight inner core develops,
rapid intensification will likely occur with the cyclone located in
an environment of low shear and over water with high oceanic heat
content.  Fabio is expected to peak in intensity in 36-48 hours
as a major hurricane, just before it reaches the 26C SST isotherm.
After 48 hours, steady weakening is expected over cooler waters,
with the cyclone likely becoming post tropical by day 5.  The
updated NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA and Florida
State Superensemble solutions, and it not much different from the
previous forecast.

Scatterometer fixes suggest that Fabio has slowed down, at least
temporarily, and turned west with an initial motion of 280/9 kt.  A
weakness in the subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico should
allow the cyclone to turn back to the west-northwest soon, with
acceleration expected through 72 hours as the ridge builds westward
over the Pacific.  There is very little spread among the track
guidance, and the official track forecast remains closest to HCCA
and the TVCE multi-model consensus.  This new forecast is nearly on
top of the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 12.5N 110.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 13.1N 111.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 14.0N 114.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 15.0N 116.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 16.1N 119.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 18.6N 124.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 21.5N 129.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 24.5N 134.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Berg

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