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Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
300 AM MDT Sun Jul 01 2018

Satellite imagery indicates that the convection associated with
Tropical Depression Seven-E has become better organized, with very
cold cloud tops near and west of the center along with a large area
of outer banding.  A recent GMI overpass suggests that the system
has not yet developed a tight inner core.  However, the various
satellite intensity estimates are now 35-45 kt.  Thus, the cyclone
is upgraded to Tropical Storm Fabio with a possibly conservative
initial intensity of 35 kt.

The initial motion is 285/11.  The track guidance is in good
agreement that Fabio should move west-northwestward on the
southwest side of the subtropical ridge for the next several days,
with a turn toward the northwest near the end of the forecast
period.  There has been little change in the guidance since the
previous advisory, so the new forecast track is an update of the
previous forecast that lies near or just north of the model
consensus.

Fabio should be over warm water and in an environment of light
vertical wind shear for the next 72 h or so, and steady to rapid
strengthening is expected during that time.  There remains some
spread in the guidance, with the HWRF model continuing to show less
intensification than the statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM
models.  The new intensity forecast will again trend above that of
the previous forecast, with steady strengthening during the first 24
h followed by rapid strengthening from 24-48 h.  It should be noted
that the forecast intensities through 72 h are lower than the SHIPS
and LGEM models, and they are in best overall agreement with the
HCCA consensus model.  After 72 h, Fabio should move over steadily
decreasing sea surface temperatures and weaken quickly.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 11.6N 106.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 12.0N 108.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 12.7N 110.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 13.3N 112.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 14.0N 114.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 15.5N 119.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 18.0N 124.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 21.0N 129.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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