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Tropical Storm DANIEL


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018
800 AM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018

Convection associated with Daniel is gradually diminishing as the
cyclone moves over cooler water, with the remaining convection just
to the west or southwest of the center.  The initial intensity is
reduced to 35 kt based on various subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates.  Daniel should continue to weaken
over sea surface temperatures of 23-24C, with the system expected
to drop below tropical storm strength in the next 12 h and to
degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h.

The cyclone is starting its expected left turn with the initial
motion now 315/8.  A combination of a mid- to upper-level low to
the west-southwest and a low- to mid-level ridge to the north
should cause Daniel to turn west-northwestward to westward during
the next 36 h, with the westward motion continuing until the
cyclone dissipates.  The new track forecast is similar to the
previous forecast and is close to the center of the guidance
envelope through 48 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 19.0N 117.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 19.6N 118.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 20.1N 120.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 20.2N 122.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/1200Z 20.3N 124.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/1200Z 20.0N 128.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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