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Tropical Storm BUD


ZCZC MIATCPEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 21A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
600 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Corrected formatting in summary section

...BUD ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 109.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* La Paz to San Evaristo, Mexico
* Altata to Huatabampito, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.  A Tropical Storm Watch
means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area, in this case within the next 12 hours across Baja California
Sur, and within the next 36 hours across western Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 109.8 West.  Bud is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A faster
northward motion should begin later tonight.  On the forecast track,
the center of Bud is expected to cross southern Baja California Sur
later this evening and move over the Gulf of California on Friday.
The weakening cyclone, or its remnants, are expected to move over
mainland Mexico by Friday night or early SaturdStewartay and then
dissipate.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.  Bud
is forecast to weaken tonight as the cyclone moves across the Baja
California peninsula.  The system should decay into a tropical
depression by Friday and become a remnant low when it moves inland
over mainland Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. During the past couple of hours, a Mexican Navy
automatic weather station located in the Port of Cabo San Lucas
reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h).  An unofficial
observation from the marina in Cabo San Lucas recently reported a
sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning
area now, and those conditions will continue through tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Baja California
Sur watch area tonight and continuing into Friday morning.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the mainland Mexico watch area
beginning Friday morning.

RAINFALL:  Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated totals of 6 inches across southern portions of Baja
California Sur and southern and eastern Sonora in northwestern
Mexico through Saturday.  These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides.

Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
across much of Sinaloa and Durango, with isolated maximum amounts
of 3 inches.

SURF:  Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the
southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto

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