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Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
900 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018
...BUD LASHING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITH
SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 109.6 West. Bud is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster
northward motion should begin later today. On the forecast track,
the center of Bud is expected to cross southern Baja California Sur
later today and move over the Gulf of California on Friday. The
weakening cyclone or its remnants are expected to move over mainland
Mexico by Friday night or early Saturday and then dissipate.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although weakening is expected, Bud is forecast to still be
a tropical storm when the center reaches southern Baja California
Sur later today, but is expected to weaken as the cyclone moves
across the peninsula. Bud should decay into a tropical depression
by Friday and become a remnant low while it moves inland over
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. A Mexican Navy automatic weather station located
in the Port of Cabo San Lucas recently reported a sustained wind of
45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 61 mph (98 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning
area now, and those conditions will continue into this afternoon.
RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated totals of 6 inches across southern portions of Baja
California Sur and southern Sonora in northwestern Mexico through
Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides.
Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
across much of Sinaloa and Durango, with isolated maximum amounts
of 3 inches.
SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the
southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.