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Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number  18...Retransmitted
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
900 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018

...BUD EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 109.1W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 109.1 West.  Bud is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue on Thursday.  A faster northward
motion is expected to occur Thursday night and Friday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to cross southern Baja
California Sur late on Thursday and move over the Gulf of California
on Friday.  The weakening storm is expected to make a second
landfall over mainland Mexico by Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Although slow weakening is expected, Bud is forecast to
still be a tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California
Sur.  Bud is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low or dissipate
after it moves inland over mainland Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area beginning Thursday afternoon.

RAINFALL:  Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of
1 to 2 inches across much of southwestern Mexico through Thursday,
with isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches.  These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Bud is also expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated
totals of 5 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur
and Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the
southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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