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ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 There have been some fluctuations in the amount of deep convection surrounding the ragged eye during the past several hours, but the overall trend has been upward. Although the subjective T-numbers have not changed significantly, NHC and UW/CIMMS objective numbers have increased, and support an initial intensity of 105 kt for this advisory. Bud has the opportunity to gain some additional strength during the next 12 to 24 hours before the environmental conditions become less conducive. A faster weakening is expected to occur when Bud moves over the cooler waters near the Baja California peninsula. By then, Bud is expected to be below hurricane strength. The official intensity forecast closely follows the Corrected Consensus HCCA model, which has been performing well. Satellite fixes indicate that Bud is moving toward the northwest or 310 degrees at about 6 kt. The hurricane continues to be steered by the weak flow around a subtropical ridge centered over Mexico and the southwestern United States. Once Bud reaches the southwestern edge of the ridge in about 24 to 36 hours, it should gradually turn north-northwestward and then northward toward the Baja California peninsula. The NHC forecast is not different from the previous one and is in between HCCA and the multi-model ensemble. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 16.7N 106.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 17.2N 107.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 17.8N 108.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 18.3N 108.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 19.0N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 20.7N 109.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 22.5N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 24.5N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN