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ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 After an abrupt strengthening episode around 0300-0500 UTC, Bud seems to have at least temporarily leveled off since the eye has recently become less distinct. The intensity estimate of 90 kt is based on a subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB, and ADT estimates from UW/CIMSS that were a little higher. Bud should remain in a favorable environment for strengthening through today, and gradually cooling water temperatures are expected to induce a slow weakening trend thereafter. The official intensity forecast is a little above the latest model consensus. Significantly cooler waters around the southern tip of Baja California should reduce Bud's intensity below hurricane status before it reaches that land area. The hurricane tracked a little more westward overnight, but the initial motion is still estimated to be northwest, or 305/9 kt. A weak mid-level ridge over Mexico and the southwestern United States is expected to persist for the next few days. Bud is expected to move along the southwestern periphery of the ridge and turn toward the north-northwest in 1-2 days. Around that time, the steering flow is expected to become quite weak and Bud's forward speed is forecast to slow to 3-4 kt. Later in the forecast period, the ridge become slightly stronger so Bud should move at least a little faster toward the Baja peninsula. The official forecast is similar to the previous one and roughly in the middle of the track guidance. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been reduced slightly based on data from the latest ASCAT overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 16.3N 106.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 17.1N 106.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 17.7N 107.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 18.2N 107.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 18.7N 107.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 20.4N 108.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 22.2N 109.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 24.0N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN