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Hurricane Aletta Special Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018
1200 AM MDT Fri Jun 08 2018

Satellite images indicate that Aletta has continued to rapidly
intensify, with very deep convection in the eyewall and a warm eye.
The initial intensity is set to 105 kt, on the low end of a range of
estimates from 105 kt from CIMSS-SATCON to 115 kt at 0500 UTC from a
special TAFB Dvorak classification.

This special advisory is being issued to update Aletta's current
and forecast intensity.  The intensity forecast is raised to 115 kt,
which is close to a persistence forecast. Afterwards a combination
of increasing shear and cooling waters should begin to weaken the
cyclone, and no changes were required to the forecast beyond 24
hours.

There are no changes to track forecast from the last advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0600Z 15.6N 110.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 16.0N 111.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 16.6N 111.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 17.2N 112.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 17.8N 113.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 19.1N 115.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 20.0N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 20.5N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

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