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Tropical Storm ALETTA
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022018 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 06 2018 Deep convection has increased significantly during the past 12 hours, and the cloud pattern is better organized with the formation of a few cyclonically curved bands. The outflow is fair in all quadrants. An ASCAT pass a few hours ago, indicate that the winds are between 35 to 40 kt, but these winds are confined to a band to the east of the center. On this basis, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Aletta, the first named system of the 2018 eastern North Pacific season. An prevailing environment of low shear favors intensification, and although the Rapid Intensification Indices are not as high as earlier, they are still on the high side. The NHC forecast calls for Aletta to become a hurricane in 36 hours as indicated in the previous forecast. After 3 days, when the cyclone reaches cooler water and higher shear, a gradual weakening is anticipated. It appears that Aletta is moving toward the west at about 6 kt around the periphery of a subtropical ridge centered over northwestern Mexico. However, a weakness in the ridge should cause the cyclone to gradually gain some latitude during the next few days with no significant change in forward speed. The NHC forecast follows the model consensus, and it is basically centered in the middle of the guidance envelope bounded by the GFS to the north and the ECMWF to the south. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 14.1N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 14.2N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 14.4N 108.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 14.6N 109.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 15.0N 110.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 15.5N 112.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 16.5N 114.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 17.0N 116.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN