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Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
700 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...MICHAEL A LITTLE STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...THREAT TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST CONTINUES TO INCREASE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 85.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 hours.

Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 85.4 West.  Michael is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h).  A general northward
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next
few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move
over the Yucatan Channel on Monday, and then across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico late Monday through Tuesday night, and approach the
United States northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday.

Recent data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
indicate along with satellite images indicate that maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
Michael is forecast to become a hurricane Monday night or Tuesday.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 170 miles (275 km)
to the northeast and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
Cuban coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize through Tuesday.  Isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba.  This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas
of mountainous terrain.

Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys
through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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