Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Hurricane MICHAEL


ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018
0300 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF
PANAMA CITY AND SOUTHEAST OF KEATON BEACH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO KEATON BEACH FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N  83.8W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 140SE  60SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 210SE 240SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N  83.8W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N  84.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 34.0N  81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 130SE  50SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 36.4N  77.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 160SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 39.3N  70.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP OVR WATER
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  90SE  90SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 210SE 120SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 42.4N  60.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 300SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 47.9N  35.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 150SE 150SW   0NW.
34 KT...160NE 420SE 360SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 49.7N  13.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.1N  83.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


NNNN