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HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018
1500 UTC WED OCT 10 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA FROM SURF CITY TO DUCK INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
FROM OCRACOKE INLET TO DUCK.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE GULF COAST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI/
ALABAMA BORDER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING
TAMPA BAY
* OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FLORIDA
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHASSAHOWITZKA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N  86.0W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  928 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  35SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE  80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 240SE 210SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N  86.0W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N  86.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.3N  84.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 33.6N  82.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 140SE  60SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 35.8N  78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 180SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 38.7N  71.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 240SE 180SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 45.5N  52.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 210SE 180SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 360SE 270SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 49.0N  29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 50.0N  13.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N  86.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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