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HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018
0900 UTC WED OCT 10 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF THE
OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING
TAMPA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FLORIDA
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHASSAHOWITZKA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS
A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N  86.5W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  943 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  35SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE  70SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N  86.5W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N  86.6W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.9N  85.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE  70SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 32.1N  83.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE  90SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 34.4N  80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 36.8N  75.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 140SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 43.5N  59.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  90SE  90SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 240SE 180SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 49.5N  36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 52.0N  17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N  86.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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