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TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018
0300 UTC MON OCT 08 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING
COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.  A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  85.4W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  85.4W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N  85.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.1N  85.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.7N  85.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.4N  86.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.3N  86.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.4N  84.5W...INLAND ERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  70SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 34.9N  78.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 40.7N  64.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N  85.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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