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Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 02 2018

Leslie has been trying to become a hurricane all day, but it is not
one yet.  The cloud pattern has changed very little during the past
several hours and in fact, one could make the case that is less
organized that earlier today with no eye feature trying to form at
this time.  However, Dvorak classifications still support an initial
intensity of 60 kt, and this is confirmed by a recent ASCAT pass
with winds of at least 55 kt.  Having said that, environmental
conditions of low shear and a warm ocean favor strengthening, and
NHC again forecasts Leslie to become a hurricane on Wednesday and
remain one for a couple of days.  After that time, Leslie will reach
cooler waters and gradual weakening is anticipated.

Leslie is moving very slowly toward the southwest or 220 degrees at
3 kt while embedded within very light steering currents. Most of the
global models bring an eastward-moving short wave near Leslie, and
this flow pattern should force the cyclone to move northward for the
next 2 to 3 days. Thereafter, Leslie will encounter the mid-latitude
westerlies and will move eastward.  The forecast is very similar to
the previous one and closely follows both the corrected-consensus
HCCA and the other multi-model aids.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase tomorrow
and Thursday across the southeastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles.  These
swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England
and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week.  Please consult products
from your local weather office as these conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

The initial 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been slightly adjusted
based on recent ASCAT data.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 29.7N  56.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 29.4N  56.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 30.0N  57.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 31.5N  57.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 33.8N  57.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 36.5N  57.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 37.0N  54.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 37.0N  51.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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