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Tropical Storm LESLIE


Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
500 PM AST Tue Oct 02 2018

Leslie is almost a hurricane.  Satellite images indicate that a ring
of deep convection now nearly surrounds Leslie's large ragged eye.
A pair of ASCAT passes from this morning showed maximum winds around
55 kt. Based on that data and a blend of the latest Dvorak
estimates, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt.  Leslie is
expected to remain over relatively warm water and in favorable
atmospheric conditions for another day or two, so continued gradual
strengthening is forecast during that time period.  Based on the
improved organization this afternoon and the model guidance, Leslie
is forecast to reach hurricane strength tonight or early Wednesday.
After a couple of days, the system is expected to move over waters
cooler than 26 deg C, and those unfavorable oceanic conditions
combined with some increase in shear this weekend should cause a
slow weakening trend.  The NHC intensity forecast remains
between the aggressive statistical-dynamical models and the lower
HMON and COAMPS-TC models, but this forecast is a tad higher than
the previous one.

The tropical storm is still losing latitude, with the latest initial
motion now estimated to be 205/8.  This south-southwestward
motion is expected to slow down tonight, and Leslie will likely come
to a stall on Wednesday in very weak steering currents.  After that
time, the combination of a shortwave trough to the west and an
amplifying mid-level ridge to the southeast should cause
Leslie to move northward on Thursday and Friday.  A turn to the
northeast and then east is forecast to occur by the weekend when the
storm moves within the mid-latitude westerlies.  The NHC track
forecast is nudged to the south and west of the previous one to come
into better agreement with the latest guidance.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase tomorrow
and Thursday across the southeastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles.  These
swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England
and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week.  Please consult products
from your local weather office as these conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

The initial 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been modified based on
the aforementioned ASCAT data.


INIT  02/2100Z 30.1N  56.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 29.7N  56.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 29.5N  56.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 30.7N  56.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 32.6N  56.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 36.3N  56.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 37.2N  54.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 37.0N  51.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

Forecaster Cangialosi