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Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 02 2018
Leslie has generally changed little during the past several hours.
The storm continues to have a ragged banded eye feature with
multiple mesovortices within it. Deep convection is most organized
in a curved band that currently wraps from the northeast to
southwest quadrant of the storm. The initial intensity is held at
55 kt, which is near the high end of the satellite estimates.
Although the storm has not strengthened much during the past day or
so, it still has an opportunity to intensify while it moves over
slightly higher SSTs and remains in favorable atmospheric conditions
during the next day or two. Beyond a couple of days, slow weakening
seems likely as Leslie heads over SSTs cooler than 26 deg C and into
a slightly drier environment. The NHC intensity forecast is the
same as the previous one, and it is in good agreement with the HCCA
and IVCN consensus aids. This intensity forecast lies between the
aggressive statistical-dynamical models and the lower HMON and
COAMPS-TC models that keep Leslie below hurricane strength.
The tropical storm continues to lose latitude, with the latest
initial motion estimate being 215/7. A continued slow south to
south-southwest motion is forecast during the next 24 hours as the
system moves in the flow on the east side of a mid-level high.
After that time, the combination of a shortwave trough to the west
and an amplifying mid-level ridge to the southeast should cause
Leslie to move northward to north-northeastward late this week. By
the weekend, the models suggest that Leslie should turn eastward
when it moves in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track
forecast is nudged to the west to come into better agreement with
the latest models.
Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase tomorrow
and Thursday across the southeastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These
swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England
and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week. Please consult products
from your local weather office as these conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 30.9N 56.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 30.1N 56.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 29.8N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 30.5N 56.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 31.9N 56.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 35.9N 56.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 37.6N 54.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 37.3N 50.5W 55 KT 65 MPH