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TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122018
1500 UTC THU SEP 27 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIRK.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N  59.3W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE  60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N  59.3W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N  58.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.3N  61.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.9N  63.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.5N  65.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.9N  67.7W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.0N  72.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N  59.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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