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TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122018
1500 UTC WED SEP 26 2018
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIRK AS ADDITIONAL WARNINGS OR
WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N  54.3W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N  54.3W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  53.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.7N  56.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.7N  58.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 110SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.5N  61.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 110SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 15.2N  63.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 110SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.0N  68.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 16.0N  72.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 16.0N  76.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N  54.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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