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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Florence Advisory Number  71
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   AL062018
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLORENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER
MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. FLASH
FLOODING AND CATASTROPHIC/HISTORIC RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER
A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 82.1W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNE OF GREENVILLE SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Flash flood warnings are currently in effect across a large portion
of southern and western North Carolina, portions of far northeast
South Carolina and southwest Virginia.

Flash flood watches are in effect across much of North
Carolina...northern South Carolina and portions of Western
Virginia and southern and eastern West Virginia.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Florence was located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 82.1 West.
The depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h) and
this motion is expected to become northeasterly on Monday
before accelerating and becoming more easterly on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is expected on Monday before
re-intensifying as it transitions to an extratropical cyclone
Tuesday and Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall over the next couple of days.  Portions of the Carolinas,
Mid-Atlantic States, and Southern New England are expected to
receive an additional 2 to 5 inches of rain...with isolated maximum
amounts of 8 inches possible.

Storm total accumulations of up to...
40 inches in southern North Carolina
20 inches in northern South Carolina and western North Carolina...
will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant
river flooding.  An elevated risk for landslides exists in western
North Carolina.

Storm total accumulations up to...
15 inches in southwest Virginia and 5-10 inches in the remainder of
the Mid-Atlantic and New England States will produce
life-threatening flash flooding and significant river
flooding. An elevated risk for landslides exists in southwest
Virginia.

TORNADOES:  A couple of tornadoes remain possible from northeast
South Carolina and eastern/central North Carolina into parts of
Virginia, western Maryland, and southern Pennsylvania through
Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Bann/Roth

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 35.5N  82.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 12H  17/1200Z 37.2N  81.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  18/0000Z 38.9N  80.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/1200Z 40.3N  76.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0000Z 41.5N  70.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/0000Z 42.9N  58.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  21/0000Z 45.0N  45.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  22/0000Z 47.1N  35.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

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