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HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  57
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062018
1500 UTC THU SEP 13 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
NEARING COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N  75.5W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
50 KT.......100NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT.......170NE 150SE 110SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 240SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N  75.5W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N  75.1W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.9N  76.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 34.2N  77.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  35NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.1N  78.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 34.0N  79.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 140SE  90SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.3N  81.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 36.9N  83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 40.3N  79.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.4N  75.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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