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Hurricane FLORENCE


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HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062018
1500 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE
REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N  65.3W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 210SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N  65.3W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N  64.6W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.7N  67.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.4N  70.6W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE  90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.1N  73.1W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE  90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.6N  75.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 34.2N  77.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 35.0N  78.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 35.5N  79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N  65.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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