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Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 31 2018

Convection associated with the depression is becoming more
concentrated, although the center still appears to be near the
eastern edge of the convective mass.  The latest satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 30 and 25 kt repsectively,
while the CIMSS satellite consensus method suggests the cyclone has
become a tropical storm.  Based on the available data, the initial
intensity remains a possibly conservative 30 kt.  The depression is
feeling the effects of moderate easterly vertical wind shear, with
little or no cirrus outflow in the eastern semicircle.

The initial motion is now 285/12.  Deep layer easterly or east-
southeasterly flow on the south side of the subtropical ridge should
steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward across the open
Atlantic ocean for the next 3-4 days.  After that time, the cyclone
is expected to turn northwestward toward a weakness in the
subtropical ridge.  The track guidance remains in good agreement
with this scenario, although there remains some spread on how
sharp the turn will be near the end of the forecast period.  The
new forecast track, which is an update of the previous forecast, is
near the various consensus models.

While the current shear is expected to subside during the next day
or so, the forecast track takes the cyclone over waters that cool
to near 26C in about 48 h.  The intensity forecast thus calls for
only gradual intensification through this time.  After 48-72 h, the
system should move over warmer water, but also should encounter
increasing westerly shear.  The intensity guidance responds to this
combination of ingredients by showing little change in strength.
The new intensity forecast, which is unchanged from the previous
forecast, is in the stronger portion of the inetnsity guidance and
above the forecasts of the consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 14.2N  25.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 14.7N  27.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 15.5N  29.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 16.3N  32.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 17.0N  35.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 18.5N  40.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 20.5N  44.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 23.0N  47.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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