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Tropical Storm CHRIS


Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane has been traversing the circulation of
Chris, and found that the wind field is gradually becoming better
defined, while the central pressure has dropped to 1006 mb. Maximum
winds so far from the SFMR are 40 kt, and this will be the intensity
assigned to Chris in this advisory. Another reconnaissance aircraft
will check the cyclone this afternoon. Recent high resolution
satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern is becoming better
organized with the low-level center now embedded within the
convection. Chris is expected to be over a pool of warm water for
the next 2 days and embedded within an environment of low shear.  On
this basis, the NHC forecast calls for Chris to become a hurricane
in about 36 hours in agreement with the dynamical guidance and the
HCCA model consensus. In about 4 days, Chris will be over 13
degree C water, and this should encourage extratropical transition.

Since the steering currents surrounding Chris collapsed, the cyclone
has barely moved since yesterday. These currents are foreast to
remain light, so little motion is anticipated during the next 2
days.  A mid-level trough forecast to swing eastward across the
eastern United States will provide enough forcing to kick Chris
northeastward with increasing forward speed over the Atlantic beyond
72 hours. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the track guidance
envelope and follows closely the corrected consensus.


INIT  08/1500Z 32.9N  75.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 33.0N  74.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 32.5N  74.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 32.5N  75.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 32.5N  75.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 34.5N  72.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 41.0N  66.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  13/1200Z 50.0N  52.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Forecaster Avila