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Subtropical Storm BERYL


Subtropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018
500 PM AST Sat Jul 14 2018

While the overall coverage and intensity of convection
associated with Beryl has decreased in the past few hours, the
remaining convection has become better organized into a curved band.
There are also indications that the center may be reforming to the
north in response to this band.  The initial intensity of 35 kt is
based on continuity from the previous advisory and a subtropical
intensity estimate of 35-40 kt from TAFB.  Beryl remains embedded in
an upper-level trough that is well defined in GOES-16 airmass
imagery, and thus is still a subtropical cyclone rather than a
tropical cyclone.

The initial motion is 035/12, which is somewhat uncertain due to
the possible reformation of the center.  Otherwise, there is little
change in the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory.  Beryl
is in relatively light southwesterly flow between the subtropical
ridge and the mid-latitude westerlies, and this pattern should steer
the cyclone generally northeastward for the next two to three days.
The guidance has shifted a little to the left of that of the
previous advisory, and the new forecast track is also nudged in that
direction.  The new track is generally a blend of the HCCA and TVCN
consensus models.

The intensity guidance is showing little additional development, and
the new intensity forecast will reflect this in keeping the
intensity at 35 kt for 24 h.  However, the center of Beryl will be
passing over the Gulf Stream during the next 12-18 h, so it would
not surprising if some intensification occurred.  After that, the
system should decay over cold water with little or no extratropical
transition.  The new forecast now calls for dissipation before the
72 h point in agreement with the dynamical models.


INIT  14/2100Z 37.3N  65.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 38.8N  64.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 40.8N  62.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 43.0N  60.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 44.9N  57.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Beven