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Subtropical Depression ALBERTO


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Subtropical Depression Alberto Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018
1000 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Alberto's circulation continues to move farther inland, and is now
centered over southeastern Alabama.  Surface synoptic observations
indicate that the system has weakened to a 30-kt subtropical
depression.   Alberto will continue to weaken as it moves over land
during the next few days, and the system should degenerate into a
remnant low in 24 hours or sooner.  The low is forecast to
dissipate in 96 hours but some of the guidance, such as the latest
run of the GFS, suggests that this event could occur sooner.

The depression is moving northward at a somewhat faster pace, or
350/10 kt.  The track forecast philosophy has not changed
significantly.  The cyclone should accelerate north-northwestward to
northward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge to the
east and southeast over the next couple of days.  After that, the
system should turn toward the north-northeast due to the influence
of the mid-latitude westerlies.  The official track forecast is
close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN, and is similar
to the previous NHC forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Heavy rainfall will lead to a significant risk of flash flooding
across the Florida Panhandle, much of Alabama, and western Georgia
overnight, spreading northward into northern Georgia, the
western Carolinas, and Tennessee on Tuesday.

2.  Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to
affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through
Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 31.4N  86.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  29/1200Z 32.9N  86.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  30/0000Z 35.6N  87.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/1200Z 38.4N  87.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/0000Z 41.6N  86.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/0000Z 48.0N  81.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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