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Tropical Storm Selma Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202017
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017

Selma has not become any better organized during the past several
hours.  The center of the tropical storm is partially exposed
between a small curved band to its southeast and weakening
convection to the west.  Recent microwave data confirmed that Selma
is a compact system, and the associated tropical-storm-force winds
are estimated to extend no more than 40 n mi from the center. The
initial intensity is held at 35 kt, in agreement with the latest
Dvorak classification from TAFB.

Satellite fixes indicate that Selma has moved northward to
north-northeastward during the past 6 to 12 hours, and the storm
lies a little to the east of the previous NHC track prediction.  A
general northward motion is expected overnight, and that should
bring the center of Selma near the coast of El Salvador by Saturday
morning.  The new NHC track forecast has shifted to the east based
on the initial position and motion, and it lies close to the
consensus models.

Little change in strength is likely while Selma approaches the
coast.  Once the storm moves inland, rapid weakening is expected
and the system will likely dissipate over the rugged terrain of
Central America by Saturday night.

The primary threat associated with Selma is heavy rainfall, with
accumulations possibly as high as 10 inches over portions of El
Salvador and Guatemala.  This rainfall could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 12.3N  89.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 13.4N  89.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 24H  29/0000Z 14.3N  88.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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