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Tropical Depression Norma Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172017
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 19 2017
Norma is on its way to becoming a remnant low. Satellite
images indicate that only a very small amount of deep convection is
left, and it is confined to the southeast of the center. The
initial intensity is held at 30 kt, based on ASCAT data from a few
hours ago. Cool waters and dry air should cause additional
weakening, and Norma is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low
tonight. The models agree that the remnant low should continue to
spin down and ultimately dissipate in about 2 days.
The depression is now moving west-northwestward at 6 kt. A slow
west-northwest to northwest motion in the low-level flow is expected
until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 21.9N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 22.3N 115.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 20/1800Z 22.7N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/0600Z 23.2N 116.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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Forecaster Cangialosi
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